Summer Reading: Sanjay Manandhar on The ‘Why Not’ Advantage
Nine out of ten startups fail. True or not, it’s a stat commonly used to underscore the daunting challenges of business building or dissuade aspiring entrepreneurs from taking the leap. Sanjay Manandhar, entrepreneur, MIT-trained technologist (and one of our fav RevUp LPs), reads the stat differently: it describes a group, and doesn’t actually say anything about you.
That's the thesis behind his new book, The Why Not Advantage: How Small Probabilities Create Outsized Outcomes: the odds you've been handed aren't the odds you're stuck with. What you believe about your chances ends up shaping them.
Sanjay spent his life acting on this belief rather than just writing about it. From bringing the internet to his native Nepal in 1994 to founding ventures across AI, AdTech, and cybersecurity, his career has been built on a consistent belief - success is shaped less by predetermined odds and more by decisive action.
The book leans on an idea from the Italian mathematician Bruno de Finetti: probability isn't some fixed, external fact. It's a belief you hold. For founders, that's a useful reframe. If the odds are partly a matter of belief, then what you believe about your own odds actually matters.
That reframe shows up throughout the book as something practical, not just philosophical. Manandhar's point is that the decisions that actually matter are singular, subjective events where your own variables are what matter most: your own effort, your own read on the situation, your own willingness to act. He breaks that down into a few frameworks: a mnemonic formula for thinking through how to actually multiply your own odds; a "compass vs. speedometer" theory to showcase why knowing your direction matters more than how fast you're moving; and the concept of activation energy for pushing through the resistance that tends to stop people right before a breakthrough. These frameworks serve as a reminder that "probability" isn't as fixed as it sounds. The stats were never about you in the first place.
As a RevUp LP and angel investor, Sanjay doesn't just write about believing in founders. He bets on them.
"There are founders who are not dissuaded by their pedigree or lack of social connections. Rather, they're asking 'Why not?' and 'Why not me?' and finding a path to success,” says Sanjay. “As an investor, I love to support that kind of founder's zeal and ambitions."
Sanjay backs that kind of founder as an LP, too — the one asking "why not me?" and building the case for their own probability of success. The Why Not Advantage is his version of a blueprint for it. Or, as he puts it:
"The people who change the world aren't the ones who calculate the odds. They are the ones who decide to act despite them."
The Why Not Advantage is available to order now. Grab it here.
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More About Sanjay Manandhar
Sanjay Manandhar is a serial entrepreneur and technologist with a Bachelor’s and Masters degrees in electrical engineering and computer science from MIT and an MBA from INSEAD. From bringing the Internet to his native Nepal in 1994 to founding ventures in AI, AdTech, computer vision, and cybersecurity, Sanjay’s work reflects a consistent belief: that success is shaped less by predetermined odds and more by decisive action.
A seasoned founder, he draws on his experiences as an immigrant and maverick to help others reclaim their personal probability of success. Sanjay lives in Cambridge, Massachusetts, with his family and is an avid Himalayan trekker and motorcyclist.
More About RevUp Capital
RevUp Capital invests in B2B and B2C companies that are revenue-driven and ready to double down on growth. We deploy cash and capacity to help companies grow from $1-3M to $10-30M, quickly and efficiently, using a revenue-based model. Companies enter our portfolio with $500K-$3M in revenue, a strong growth rate, and a team that’s ready to scale. Our typical investment range is $300K-$500K.
To learn more about RevUp and our most recent fund, visit https://www.revupfund.com/blog/athena-growth-fund-2025
And if the idea of expanding the toolkit for early stage investing sounds good to you, check out a recent recording that Melissa produced on the economic upsides of investing beyond unicorns.
Learn More at www.revupfund.com